Category: digital media

Popcorn is Eating Hollywood, How Hollywood Bites Back

PopcornTime-0

In case you haven’t heard of Popcorn Time, here’s a quick rundown of what it is: (1) Install an app  (2) Open the app and get free, brand spankin’ new movies and TV shows. That’s it, magic. No waiting for new releases or hunting Netflix for the good stuff, all the latest and greatest right there at your fingertips. Make no mistake it is still downloading content in violation of copyright laws so beware. The difference is that now anyone can get these movies as easy as it is to fire up Netflix and in an interface just as nice.

How can this be so?

Well, legally it can’t. Popcorn Time is the easiest way ever to get torrent content; those new movies people you knew (not you!) used to somehow download from the internet are now right there is an easy to use, beautiful app. The kicker is that unlike the music industry which went after Napster for enabling the consumption of music without paying for it, the scary part for Hollywood is that Popcorn Time is an open source program meaning anyone can download and run the code. There is no ‘company’ to go after so the only way to stop it short of going after every person is to go after the torrent sites, a battle that has been failing since the dawn of the internets. The original creators backed away from the project, it disappeared for a day and then roared back as new groups picked it up and have greatly expanded the offering with more content, launched an Android app, and even added Chromecast support. All this is less than two months.

The rise of Popcorn Time is due to the simple truth that people want to watch the newest content without waiting for it or figuring out where to get it. Make it easy to find and consume and people will flock to your service. While Popcorn Time had Oscar winners Frozen, American Hustle, 12 Years A Slave, and more, in Canada the new arrivals on Netflix last month included the first two Bourne movies. Seriously.

What this all means is that the multi-billion dollar movie industry that relies on a business model centred around content rights and availability windows is being massively disrupted and there is little that can be done (remember, there is no company to go after). The scary part is that if Popcorn Time caught on to mass adoption and studios felt the pinch then it could spell doom for great content since it’s the money made from all of these rights dealings that pays for the movies we enjoy. As a consumer its great to get free new movies, but what happens when those movies stop getting made?

Hollywood has two options

(a) Get the lawyers busy trying in vain to shut down torrent sites, domain hosts, and going after everyone that downloads the app

(b) Recognize that the rights business models that have persisted for decades are not in step with consumer expectations in an always-on, instant gratification world and change

Just like their music industry brethren, studios are scrambling the but ultimately there is no stopping this train. The good news is that unlike the development needed to establish music downloads and streaming; iTunes, Netflix, Spotify and others are now in place and widely used. There is no user behavior chasm to cross, all that needs to change is the rules.

All of this is easier said than done. The entire music industry pulled in $15B last year worldwide from recorded music sales while global box office sales totalled $35.9B. Those numbers don’t include what HBO, Netflix, Hulu and others pay for the right to carry content which again outpace what music services must pay; Netflix is rumored to be paying Disney $300M for the rights to its catalogue and getting no new movies until 2016! The good news is that the highest revenue growth is from these streaming services and so the negotiating relationship is shifting. With Popcorn Time putting pressure on Hollywood and in position to jumpstart a potential death spiral for Netflix these two bedfellows should align as the enemy of the enemy becomes a friend.

Hollywood will eventually eat Popcorn

Given the choice to get what we want most of us will gladly pay a fair price for it. It’s when we’re not given the movies we want but feel we’re entitled to, business models be damned, that we are more likely to use something like Popcorn Time and face the chance that a studio lawyer will pick us out of the millions to march to court. It is a mammoth disruption with billions at stake but eventually we will all be able to get the latest and greatest movies and TV shows through our favorite streaming service or downloaded on iTunes or something like it. It’s easy to envision Netflix adding a Premium subscription plan that costs more than the regular but offers new content.

Walk of Shame which stars Elizabeth Banks opened last weekend and was simultaneously released on iTunes and Pay TV . It did horribly at the box office and rocketed to #1 on iTunes. The shift has already begun, grab the popcorn and enjoy.

 

Cars, TVs, Watches, Toasters…the Power is in Your Pocket

The-Internet-of-Things-InfographicIf you work in any company or venture connected to technology than by know you’ve realized that the next frontier is the internet of things (IoT); namely that so many things we use everyday will be connected. What started with computers, morphed to phones and tablets, and found its way to TVs, and more recently wearables (wristbands, watches, etc.) will now pollinate to cars, appliances, and more. It’s the natural order of things. What may be implicit but hasn’t been discussed is that all of these things will rely on one thing you use and can’t live without, the phone that lives in your pocket. The worst kept secret that Apple and Google are in a land grab for the automobile world largely broke this week with Apple’s announcement of CarPlay and Volvo showing a video demo to the world (below). Add Google’s announcement of the Open Automotive Alliance and the battle is on.

Auto makers are hedging their bets, many planning to offer both Apple and Android inside their cars and for good reason. iOS and Android have proliferated to the point where its a neck-and-neck two-horse mobile race (sorry Microsoft, Blackberry, others) and therein lies the advantage. No matter what thing is connected, they will all be an extension of what is running on your phone.

CarPlay and undoubtedly Google’s offering (possibly called projected mode) will be a second screen manifestation of what you have on your phone. Think of it as AirPlay and Chromecast; you can enjoy the things you do on your phone in a more auto-friendly way on a beautiful nice screen. If you’re working in a company or thinking about starting an auto-focused infotainment system or app you should think twice. The internet of things will all be tied back to control from the smart phone, not device specific implementations across the spectrum of devices. For consumers it means that all of your devices could (in theory) work seamlessly, extending your experience (whether powered by iOS or Android) to all the connected things you care about. For developers it provides more consumer touch points. For Apple and Google its a battle to the death to become an increasingly integrated part of our lives. Something we couldn’t walk away from if we tried, all monetized through the services on these devices that bring us search, ads, and apps.

At the D Mobile conference last year I asked Eric Schmidt how Google views the connected home. His response was “Google thinks of Android as the OS for all connected devices, everything from a tablet to a toaster.” Its happening and in the future, when you ask your toaster who has a special on bread it will point you to a store in your neighborhood. Your car will tell you the closest place near by. Your phone might send you to the website. And Google will get paid. Pure genius.

Why The Big Bang Theory is No Good For Start-Ups

No disrespect to the actors here from the Bing commercial or anyone that dresses like them, unless you're a faker not a hustler.
No disrespect to the actors here from the Bing commercial or anyone that dresses like them, unless you’re a faker not a hustler.

Two people in their early twenties, maybe even still in school think of something and it becomes the next big thing. They built an early version in their dorm room, garage, or basement (maybe dropped out of school), get an early investor/mentor and the rest is history – acquisition, IPO, millions and billions of users and money. The stories of YouTube, Facebook, Google, even Microsoft are the stuff of legend and over the past 10-15 years has resulted in more people than ever chasing the start-up dream. If it can happen to them why can’t it happen to me?

When Google bought YouTube mainstream culture changed. The whiz kid behind Facebook cemented that change. Now its cool to be a nerd.

People everywhere heard stories that Google was buying a company for over a billion dollars that was less than two years old and created by two kids. What?!? A billion dollars! That’s crazy. Then along came Facebook with its baby-faced founder taking on the world hoodie and all. Shit, even Justin Timberlake wanted to be in on it. A world that was once reserved for geeks became pop culture.

My favorite comic Bill Burr (@billburr) laments how the natural order of things has been upset now that the nerd is cool. That’s not how it used. I’m lucky enough to make my living doing the digital things I love but growing up I was at the park in my neighborhood playing basketball, football, and road hockey until the street lights came on. The kids that were coding in their basement usually weren’t the most popular kids at school. When they did come to the park they would take their lumps. Doesn’t make it right but that’s how it was (before I get “you support bullying” emails let me be clear…any bully needs to have his ass kicked…yes I know that defeats the purpose but that’s how I was raised. Its called self-defense).

But just like the stock market, you hear about the few that hit big not the many more than sank. You hear about and celebrate the winners and try to forget the losers. Behind the hype is the hustle. There’s a lesson in that for first time founders.

Zuck is this generation’s Bill Gates. The difference is that when Microsoft was growing up it wasn’t cool to be a techie. The company’s software was on every computer and desktop but its young founders weren’t in social media or talked about on the internet. Because these things didn’t exist or were not mainstream in the 80’s and a large part of the 90’s. The last 10 years are special, and the last 5 even more-so. Bill Gates became famous for being rich not for what he created while he (and Ballmer, Allen, etc.) were creating it. If Bill Gates was in high school in the 80s he would have been picked on. Today, Zuck would be the Prom king. Times have changed.

I absolutely love the mainstream recognition that anyone can live their dreams, even those guys you once thought were nerds. That’s the great thing. Tech has joined the glamor group of music, movies, and sports but the problem is that just like in those industries there are too many fakers in the game. There are so many people who dress geek, talk geek, and want to be associated with the “start-up scene” but aren’t prepared for the hard work, rejection, and struggle it takes to make it big. It’s the guys (and girls) that are grounded that make it happen. I usually meet them through a connection because you don’t see them around much. They come up for air at important events but mostly they’re busy working not pretending. Don’t get me wrong, get out there and meet people but do it as part of your hustle not to play the part.

MESSY HAIR, THICK RIMMED GLASSES, AND HAVING A NECK BEARD WON’T MAKE YOU A SUCCESS. IT TAKES HUSTLE AND HARD WORK.

Steve Chen and Chad Hurley (YouTube) worked at PayPal and learned from the bright minds there before they created YouTube. Zuckerberg listened to great mentors like Peter Thiel and Sean Parker who taught him the ropes. These guys all dreamt big but they also learned, put in work, and hustled. Success came because of all the risk, sweat, pain, and belief that made it happen. That they became as mainstream as rock stars was a by-product of the success that came from the hard work. Elon Musk is the guy you should follow. He’s a throwback; really changing the world and your mother doesn’t know him.

So, have an idea? Get at it. Don’t walk around like you’re a Big Bang Theory cast member and just talk about what you’re doing without doing it.

  • Put less time “talking the talk” and more time building.
  • Seek out mentors that can help you learn and grow.
  • Build something you’re proud of then show it.
  • Learn, refine, fail, come back harder, stronger, and wiser.
  • Keep hustlin’ like hell.

Have your hustle strong and something special? Drop me a line, I’d be glad to help.

If you have an appetite for honest comedy and not stuck on political correctness, then here’s Bill Burr on nerds (skip to the 3:00 minute mark, and incase you’re reading this at work, there is swearing).

 

Apperating Systems: The Blurry Line Between App & OS and The Coming Launcher Wars

A slide from the Facebook Home launch event shows how Facebook Home sits between the Android operating system and apps — i.e., it’s an apperating system. Photo: Alex Washburn/Wired
A slide from the Facebook Home launch event shows how Facebook Home sits between the Android operating system and apps — i.e., it’s an apperating system. Photo: Alex Washburn/Wired

Earlier this year Facebook launched Facebook Home and the (tech) world took notice. Here was a totally different user experience built on top of Android and not specifically tied to a company device (unlike Amazon’s Kindle Fire). Although it still allows you to get to the underlying Android apps, etc., Facebook Home effectively replaces the Android user experience, manipulating the operating system and how we use it. In the Android world these are called Launcher apps; an app that takes over and becomes what you see when you turn on your phone (or tablet) and dictates how you use it. Its an app that acts like an operating system, or as Wired recently called them “Apperating Systems”.

This isn’t new. There are a bunch of these launcher apps in Google Play with varying degrees of quality. Amazon’s Kindle Fire has its own apperating system running on top of Android. It’s not easy to create something that is going to be as fluid, responsive, and intuitive as the operating system it lives on, but when done right these apps bring more features and functionality than we get out of the box. It is difficult but you don’t need to be a large company to pull it off; Japan-based Go Launcher for example, brings more widgets, custom transitions, and greater flexibility to Android, and rated 4.5 after 1.2M+ reviews, has been downloaded over 50M times. Yes, 50M and growing.

Ottawa, Canada based Teknision is causing waves with their launcher named Chameleon. This thing is an Apperating System in the truest sense. Not only does it present a different user experience, widgets, and customizability, it works to understand you and what you might want at anytime of day. As Teknision says it’s “A homescreen designed to fit your lifestyle.” From the site…

“Chameleon lets you create multiple home screens each with your own layout of widgets and apps. Chameleon widgets are designed to give you the most relevant information that you want, when you want it. Your information needs may change throughout your day, so Chameleon includes an innovative context system. Through our context system you can create rules so that whenever you unlock your device you are presented with the Home Screen that is immediately valuable to you.”

That means you can wake up in the morning and turn on your tablet and you’ll get weather and maybe the morning news. Check back at work and you’ll see industry and work related content. In bed at night? Maybe videos and social. The focus here is an experience that is always relevant to you. Pretty cool stuff.

Being the first thing people see when they turn on their mobile device is extremely valuable real estate. Apple and Microsoft tightly control this; maintaining rules on what developers, OEMs, Carriers, and content companies can/can’t do on their devices. The effect is the everyone other than Apple and Microsoft are always a click (or much more) away; behind an icon or tile and fighting for app/content discovery and engagement.

With its open nature, Android steps in and has become the playground for the UX creative masses and opportunistic. Within some Google rules, companies can power the default Android homescreen experience and actually how people use their device. I can’t over-estimate how powerful that is. Wired’s article is titled “Move Over Apple and Google: Apperating Systems are Taking Over Your Phones”, and correctly notes this loss of control is a gift and a curse;

“As apperating systems spread and improve, they will help Android and iOS better serve niche audiences and serve as labs for features that migrate back to the host system and into general use. At the same time, they’ll raise thorny questions about the appropriate balance of power between operating system vendors like Google and Apple on the one hand and app makers like Facebook and Amazon on the other.”

There is a titanic industry shift underway where the hardware provider may not be the hardware experience provider. You can buy a phone because you like how it feels and the megapixels the camera has but then install the apperating system of your choice. In a tech world where the giants have been racing to control the full stack, this is very disruptive.

Facebook Home has put a spotlight on the space and in a sign that things are heating up, the money has started flowing. Yet to launch Aviate has recently raised a round of funding from some very note-able VCs and angels. My bet is we’ll see more investments soon.

Kindle, Facebook Home, Go Launcher, Chameleon, and Aviate all have their own goals and company objectives and its early days; the concept of being able to actually change the experience on your phone isn’t mainstream and whether it gets there depends on how much more compelling these apperating systems (or launcher apps) are versus the default mobile OS. Apple and Google will continue to work wonders on iOS and Android respectively and at the same time we’ll see more ways developers are extending those experiences. What you choose is up to you but what it all means is a consumer-focused, innovation driven world in the palm of your hand.
Facebook Home

Chameleon

Go Launcher

HTML5 DRM is Here

Netflix-logoBack in October I wrote a guest post on VentureBeat that argued in favor of an HTML5 DRM solution, something that will unlock premium video from the device and allow us to watch all the likes of Game of Thrones anytime, anyplace online. Well, that day may finally be upon us. Netflix has been working to make HTML5 DRM a reality and has today announced HTML5 playback support for Samsung ARM Chromebooks. This is big.

From the Netflix blog:

“Over the last year, we’ve been collaborating with other industry leaders on three W3C initiatives which are positioned to solve this problem of playing premium video content directly in the browser without the need for browser plugins such as Silverlight. We call these, collectively, the “HTML5 Premium Video Extensions”.

You can read the post for detailed descriptions of what these extensions are, but here is a summary:

Media Source Extensions (MSE): Enables Netflix to serve content from the best content delivery network at the time, include failover, and manipulate how content is streamed based on available bandwidth. In English it means serving a video stream the most optimal way to ensure its fast and consistent.

Encrypted Media Extensions (EME): Here’s where it gets interesting. This extension enables Netflix to “control playback of protected content”, enabling shows that studios were afraid to stream on the web with Flash or Silverlight (dead and dying respectively) to now be distributed on the web and not only in native apps. The most interesting aspect here is that the extensions specification specifies “how the DRM license challenge/response is handled, both in ways that are independent of any particular DRM” meaning support for a variety of DRM systems in the browser, not locked to any one provider.

Web Cryptography API (WebCrypto): This is the layer that makes sure data travelling back/forth between the browser and Netflix’s servers stays protected and secure. Netflix notes, “this is required to protect user data from inspection and tampering, and allows us to provide our subscription video service on the web.”.

Taken as the sum of their parts it means:  Serving video effectively, respecting digital rights required/enforced by studios, and maintaining security in transmission.

What it all comes down to: We can soon look forward to watching the shows we know and love; premium content like Game of Thrones, Breaking Bad, and blockbuster movies through any web browser. No more being tied to a device that has downloaded plugins or apps. It’s ironic to say that the advent of a system that restricts playback based on rights is enabling content freedom but in my view that is the case. Only the truly delusional think that HBO, AMC, and Hollywood studios are going to hand over the content to be shared without any economic benefit (like requiring a subscription or download payment). If they did they’d go out of business fast.

To date, in order to distribute their content along with associated rules on playback, sharing, etc. networks and studios needed native mobile apps on phones and tablets. As TechCrunch correctly points out,

“Netflix was able to work with Google to get its videos working on those Chromebooks, thanks to a proprietary Netflix-developed PPAPI (Pepper Plugin API) plug-in which takes the place of the WebCrypto extension. But once WebCrypto is available through the Chrome browser, Netflix should be able to extend its support of HTML5 to Windows and Mac PCs without the need for Silverlight.”

Once WebCrypto is available through the Chrome browser…that’s the key. Once this API is baked into Chrome, which is in Google’s best interest, it will get baked into competing browsers and usher in the reality of premium content distributed on the web. We’re not there yet but its closer than ever and like I said in that VentureBeat post, it’s inevitable.